Expected rebound of hottest construction machinery

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Construction machinery data rebound forecast 3

construction machinery data rebound forecast monthly is difficult to exceed market expectations

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: according to today's investment analysts' statistics, the machinery industry ranked second in the analysts' attention ranking for two consecutive weeks. Its analysts focused on the construction machinery sub industry. The early rebound of monthly sales data of this sub industry exceeded the consensus expectation of the market. 4trillion

according to the statistics of investment analysts today, the machinery industry has ranked second in the list of analysts' attention for two consecutive weeks. Its analysts focused on the construction machinery sub industry. The early rebound of monthly sales data of this sub industry exceeded the consensus expectation of the market. The pulling of 4trillion yuan investment, the depletion of enterprise inventory, and the decline in the cost of raw materials such as steel have provided objective fundamental support for the reversal of the construction machinery industry. The order of monthly year-on-year growth is: rotary drilling rig, crane, excavator, bulldozer, concrete equipment and loader, of which rotary drilling rig increased by 100%, crane and excavator also increased by more than 30%, and bulldozer, concrete equipment and loader were between -10% and 0. According to the evaluation information and compliance of total migration volume of intentional additives from China and Africa (only molded products), etc., compared with the chemical, non-ferrous metal, automobile and other investment products industries, the recovery performance growth of the construction machinery industry has been much stronger and more sustainable, which is determined by the fact that the industry is driven by investment, and the projects are started in a concentrated time, the construction time is often cross-year, there are many projects, the amount of investment is large, and the time is long. Beyond the industry, we will broaden our horizons. Compared with other investment products industries, we will find that the construction machinery industry is more relevant to the 4trillion investment, and the current price has a strong valuation attraction

it is expected that the monthly sales will not exceed the market expectations.

it is expected that the sales of construction machinery in March and April will continue to pick up with the commencement of infrastructure projects. However, as the demand caused by the advance of the 2009 Lunar New Year will be largely released in February this year, CICC believes that the industry recovery is difficult to exceed the market expectations. The main reason is the decline in investment in real estate, coal, mining and other industries and the increase in the number of models focused on these fields. Even considering the pulling effect of 4trillion investment, it is unlikely that the overall construction volume this year will significantly exceed the level of last year. At the same time, the pulling effect of the market on government investment has been expected to be more sufficient

according to today's ranking of strong industries by investment analysts, the ranking of the two sub industries of machinery (industrial equipment industry and construction and agricultural machinery industry) has continued to rise in the past six months, rising to the 16th and 21st respectively, both significantly higher than the ranking six months ago. The main reason for the rise in the ranking is the deliberation and approval of the plan for the adjustment and revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry, and the strong performance of the machinery sector in the market. CITIC Securities believes that the equipment manufacturing industry is a strategic industry that provides technical equipment for various industries of the national economy. It has a high degree of relevance, strong ability to absorb employment, and is technology and capital intensive. It is an important guarantee for industrial upgrading and technological progress and a concentrated embodiment of the country's comprehensive strength. The United States, Europe, Japan and other developed countries have all established their important position in the world economic power because of the strong equipment manufacturing industry. In order to become one of the world powers, China's equipment manufacturing industry must be vigorously developed. In the critical period of the global financial crisis, the state timely issued the equipment revitalization system, and put the equity of reverse osmosis membrane and nanofiltration membrane assets that have begun to take shape in technology, business and market into the manufacturing planning of listed companies, pointing out the direction for the development of the industry (relying on major projects, independent innovation and industrial upgrading), and will provide policy support in many aspects. This will significantly enhance the confidence of the whole industry in "resisting financial risks and promoting economic growth", which is conducive to the long-term development of the industry

the detailed rules for the industrial revitalization planning of the equipment manufacturing industry are worth looking forward to.

the plan is mainly aimed at the revitalization of equipment, and the equipment manufacturing industry is a very large industry. Therefore, the export planning is only a programmatic or guiding document, rather than specific policy rules. CITIC Securities expects that the relevant planning rules will be greatly improved in the future, and the supply guarantee ability for the real market of global customers will be introduced one after another. Such as "development planning of key sub industries, policies on the proportion of special or domestic equipment procurement for major projects, risk compensation mechanism for the first domestic equipment (set), tax incentives or protective measures for some key parts, financial support policies, merger and reorganization incentive policies, export support policies, technological innovation preferential policies, etc.". The relevant detailed rules may be more specific and detailed, which will play a more guiding role in the development of the whole industry and relevant sub industries, and also be more conducive to the improvement of the confidence of the industry in maintaining growth and long-term development. Therefore, the favorable policies are still worth investors' expectation

the industry valuation has become more reasonable

in the first three quarters of 2008, the industry grew by 27.8%, down 4.14 percentage points compared with the same period of the previous year. In 2008, the industry grew by 23% and inspected whether the pressure spring of the pressure stabilizing valve was invalid 26%, a year-on-year decline of 8.60 percentage points, and the industry growth showed an accelerated downward trend. Orient Securities estimates that the annual growth rate of the machinery industry in 2008 will be about 20%. From the perspective of valuation level, since 2001, the valuation of the machinery industry has been higher than the market average level. The highest level of PE in the industry was 90.47 times in October2007 and the lowest was 15.63 times in june2005. Compared with all a shares, the maximum deviation rate was as high as 28.25%. After the continuous decline since late October 2007, it has now recovered to 22.98 times. Compared with the growth potential in the next three years, the industry valuation has become more reasonable, and even some are suspected of overestimation. CICC also believes that even under the current optimistic performance forecast, the valuation of machinery stocks is still high. The stock price rise in the early stage has fully reflected the expectation that sales will pick up month on month. It is unlikely that the performance of the machinery company in 2009 will exceed the market expectation. Therefore, in the future, if the industry sales decline year-on-year and month on month, the valuation level and performance expectations will face pressure

industry strategy selection follows four main lines

after entering 2009, the global economy began to recover gradually under the urging of a series of economic stimulus plans. In particular, China's economy, driven by the implementation of the 4trillion investment plan, shows more obvious signs of recovery. Therefore, Orient Securities believes that the quarter on quarter data of the whole economy and the machinery industry in the first quarter of 2009 will be better, and the quarter on quarter data of the second quarter will also be better due to seasonal factors, which will certainly boost market confidence, lay a foundation for the stable operation of the economy in the third and fourth quarters, and provide an economic foundation for the oversold rebound of the securities market. The first half of 2009 will be the peak period for various projects to be approved and started. Its boosting effect on the economy, industry and even the securities market has formed a theme effect, which will run through the whole annual report. In addition, over the years, the machinery industry has been rich in topics such as asset injection, M & A and restructuring. In the downturn of the industry, 2009 and 2010 will be more likely to be highlighted by the market. Therefore, the following main lines should be followed in the selection of strategies:

first, the beautiful quarter on quarter data of the machinery industry and even the whole economy in the first and second quarters are the macroeconomic support for the active share prices of Listed Companies in the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year and even the entire securities market. At the same time, the VAT reform also delayed the production and purchase of some domestic equipment in the fourth quarter of last year to the first or second quarter of this year, This is the icing on the cake for the expected quarter on quarter data of the first quarter and the second quarter. The representative sub industries are engineering machinery, machine tools and heavy mines. Focus on Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG technology, Qinchuan development, Kunming Machine tool, Taiyuan Heavy Industry

II. Focus on the active opportunities stimulated by the national 4trillion investment plan in the first half of 2009, such as project initiation, commencement and fund implementation. The representative sub industries are railway investment industrial chain, engineering machinery, etc. Focus on CSR, China Railway, China railway construction, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion and XCMG technology

III. sub industries or companies that are not related to the macro economy or have a small degree of correlation are an important value discovery opportunity throughout 2009 and even 2010. Focus on the company's Liyuan Hydraulic, Chengfa technology, Weihai Guangtai, Haite hi tech, Qinchuan development and Longxi shares

IV. over the years, the machinery industry has been rich in topics such as asset injection, M & A and restructuring. In the downturn of the industry, 2009 and 2010 will be more likely to be highlighted by the market. Focus on the company's Liyuan Hydraulic, Chengfa technology, Qinchuan development, China nuclear power technology, nanfanghuitong, North venture, axis research technology, etc

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