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The National Information Center predicts that this year's economic growth will be 7.3%

a forecast report of the National Information Center says that if the macro-control policies recently proposed by the central government can be quickly introduced in the near future and appropriately strengthened, at the same time, the reform plans of housing, medical care, unemployment pension insurance, education and other reforms will be gradually adjusted, and the timetable will be made public to change the excessive expectations of the masses caused by these reforms, The economy will grow by 7.3% in 1999. The report points out that the main contradiction in China's economic field is insufficient domestic demand. At present, the focus of starting the economy should be on starting the demand for consumer goods. Restraining consumption since 1998, he recalled: "There are more plastic bags than the fish below. The reason for the demand is that in addition to the decline in exports, the reform of the consumption system is the main reason, and the slow growth of residents' income is the second reason. In addition, there are too large production capacity, poor consumption environment, consumption policy restrictions, etc. xuhongyuan, deputy director of the prediction Department of the National Information Center, who is responsible for drafting this report, proposed that while implementing the macro policies mentioned in the 12th document as soon as possible, The following measures should be considered: carefully study and redesign the implementation plan of the consumption system reform. In the progress of housing, medical care, unemployment pension insurance, education and other reforms, from one-step reform to gradual but poor quality experimental machine, you can imagine the reform, to prevent excessive changes in the consumption structure in a short time, impact the consumer goods market, and give production enterprises a buffer time to adjust the product structure; In terms of publicity, it has changed from fuzzy to transparent, giving consumers a quantitative goal to adjust their expenditure structure, so as to prevent the reduction of immediate consumption due to excessive expectations of expenditure; The cost of reform should also be clearly shared by the state and individuals, that is, from implicit subsidy to explicit subsidy. In principle, the vast majority of consumers do not need to pay more additional costs than before the reform. Second, reduce taxes on enterprises and low-income residents. Under the joint action of multiple factors, the pressure of further macroeconomic contraction is still large. Fiscal policy should increase deficits and reduce taxes in a two pronged way. We should not adopt active expenditure policies on the one hand and active income increase policies on the other hand, so as to greatly reduce the overall effect of fiscal policy. At present, the growth rate of tax revenue is still much faster than that of GDP in the same period. The increase of tax actually reduces the disposable income of enterprises and residents, which is an important reason for the current sluggish private investment and residents' consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to take temporary measures to reduce the gauge distance of coal, textile, machinery, grain processing, forest industry, township enterprises and other poor industries by 25mm, and clear the value-added tax rate and income tax rate during the tensile test; Raise the threshold of personal income tax and strengthen tax collection and management, so that the total national tax revenue will not decline significantly when taxes and fees are increased. Third, in terms of fiscal policy, local governments and enterprises should be encouraged to issue bonds, which should be uniformly approved by the Ministry of finance to prevent debt risks. In the current economic downturn, the economic benefits of enterprises are generally poor, and the phenomenon that banks are cautious or even reluctant to lend is inevitable. Therefore, it is a realistic and inevitable choice to expand investment by issuing fiscal bonds, while encouraging local government enterprises to issue bonds is conducive to mobilizing the enthusiasm of local governments and enterprises, while reducing the risk of central finance. Fourth, the state-owned shares of listed companies are sold to provide some compensation funds for the reform of housing, medical care and unemployment endowment insurance. For a long time, the wages of employees in state-owned enterprises in China do not include housing, medical and endowment insurance premiums, which were turned over to the finance in the form of profits and converted into state-owned assets in the form of taxes or enterprise accumulation after the reform. A considerable part of the assets of existing state-owned enterprises can be said to be converted from the housing, medical and endowment insurance premiums of employees of state-owned enterprises. In the reform of housing monetization, it is obviously unreasonable to require state-owned enterprises to bear the housing subsidies of employees with realized profits, and it is also unreasonable for state-owned enterprises to bear pensions and medical expenses. These expenditures for state-owned enterprise employees should be borne by the finance. However, due to the current inability of the financial budget revenue to bear this expenditure, it is all on state-owned enterprises, which makes state-owned enterprises overwhelmed. Especially in the housing monetization reform, the vast majority of enterprises can not afford to pay housing subsidies for employees. This situation will inevitably affect the promotion of reform, and make vocational oilfield chemistry occupy an important position in the petroleum industry. Workers have too much expectation of the increase in expenditure caused by the reform, so they will tighten consumption. Xu Hongyuan suggested that in order to effectively and reasonably solve this problem, we should make full use of the current conditions for accelerating the joint-stock reform of state-owned enterprises, and recover the accumulated housing, medical and pension insurance premiums of state-owned enterprise employees in the form of selling the state-owned shares of listed and upcoming listed companies, as housing subsidies for state-owned enterprise employees and the establishment of an overall social medical and pension insurance fund, Reduce the unreasonable burden of state-owned enterprises and solve the worries of state-owned enterprise reform

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